Modelling Services

IEC has an in-house suite of proprietary software and modelling tools that have been developed by personnel with hands-on experience in the power industry, specifically to meet the particular requirements of IPP companies.

Our modelling capabilities include:

		Load & dispatch simulation
		Pool market simulation
		Pool price projections
		New Entrant analysis
		Fuel demand forecasting
		Tariff calculation
		Financial modelling

LOAD & DISPATCH SIMULATION - POOL MARKET SIMULATION

IEC’s flagship product is our power market & Pool simulation model which is designed to replicate the detailed operation of power generation systems in both regulated and deregulated Pool markets.

The simulation model dispatches all existing and future plants into the load on an hourly basis (8760 times per year). Hydro plants are dispatched optimally according to their weekly energy budgets and constraints. Thermal plants are then dispatched into the net thermal load, according to their position in the merit order (after adjustment for maintenance, transmission loss factors, must-run & minimum generation constraints). Where necessary, adjustments are made for Pool market behaviour and/or take-or-pay constraints.

The model is designed to make long-term (20+ years) projections of systems, companies and individual projects and can test multiple scenarios of load growth, expansion plan, hydrology, fuel price, Pool market behaviour, fuel price, Pool market behaviour, etc.

Typical outputs include:

		Reserve margin
		Plant capacity factors (daily, monthly or annual)
		Fuel demand (including daily & seasonal variations)
		New generation capacity requirements (timing, size & type)
		Pool price projections (not forecasts)
		CO2 emissions & carbon credits
		Plant/company EBITDA (operating revenues & costs)
		Scenario analysis

Key outputs are all generated in graphical and table form. The following charts are representative outputs:

Philippines	Indonesia	Japan
Singapore	New Zealand	New Zealand

Click graphs to view larger size and more information.

IEC maintains comprehensive databases and has already built working simulation models for most Asia/Pacific grids including:

		Japan
		South Korea
		Philippines
		Indonesia
		Singapore
		Vietnam
		Australia
		Taiwan
		New Zealand
		China

NEW ENTRANT ANALYSIS

IEC has developed an analytical screening tool designed to analyse New Entrant options. The model determines the optimum long-term economic option for a new power plant at a specified capacity factor. Users can input technical specifications, fuel costs and capex estimates for various plant types and compare the levelised tariff at a specified capacity factor. This tool is particularly useful for investors participating in IPP solicitations where plant/fuel type is optional. In deregulated Pool markets, the New Entrant curves can be compared with the projected annual price distribution curve, to determine the optimum capacity factor. The model also allows fuel suppliers to calculate the maximum netback fuel price available in a deregulated Pool market.

TARIFF CALCULATION

IEC has developed a proprietary Online Tariff Calculator (OTC) that is available free of charge on this website. The OTC is designed as a screening tool to provide estimates of levelised tariffs. It is intended to be used to make approximate estimates and to test the relative sensitivity of key variables. Users seeking more detailed calculations are advised to contact us for a full financial model.

FINANCIAL MODELLING

IEC can provide assistance in the preparation or review of detailed financial cash flow models for greenfield developments and acquisitions. Models are customised to the project financing requirements and provide multi-year cash flow and earnings statements. These models can then be linked to IEC’s market projections to determine the sensitivity of IRR to various scenarios.